P&H’s Western Weekly Recap: June 17-21, 2024
June 17, 2024 | Western Canada
Here’s what’s new in the global grain markets this week:
Wheat
-Minneapolis Spring wheat futures continued their decline last week w/ the July futures down 39 cents on the week.
-US Crop Progress report will be out this afternoon, last week it showed 98% of the US Spring wheat crop was planted with 72% rated as good/excellent. Winter wheat conditions were 47% G/E (down 2%) with harvest at 12% complete.
-For the week ending June 10, SK crop conditions rated Spring wheat at 87% good/excellent. Though AB did not provide crop condition ratings last week, they mentioned “emergence of major crops is reported at 86%,” in line w/ historical averages.
-New crop US wheat sales (24/25 marketing year started June 1) for all wheat now stand at 4.84MMT (up 28% vs this time last year) w/ hard red winter sales at 1.13MMT (up 55% vs LY) and hard red Spring wheat sales at 1.67MMT (up 39% vs LY).
-According to the Rosario Grain Exchange, Argentina’s upcoming wheat harvest could hit 21MMT on account of record wheat acres (17.1mln ac), that would be up from the 15.85MMT produced LY but short of their 21/22 record crop of 22.15MMT.
Black Sea
–Russia’s grain union says 15-30% of winter grains hit by frosts which was much higher than what their agriculture ministry had suggested. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture so far estimates crop losses from May frosts at about 2.47mln ac (1.2% of the total planted acres) w/ another 1.73mln ac suffering damage.
-They added that most of the dead crops have already been reseeded.
–Russia is the largest supplier of wheat to Turkey and after an announcement that Turkey would no longer import wheat until at least Oct. 15, Russia remains optimistic that other buyers can pick up the slack.
–Ukraine’s Ag Minister increased the country’s 2024 grain production estimate from 52.4 to 56.0MMT which included 21MMT of wheat and export forecasts on wheat at 15MMT
Canola / Soybean
-Canola futures were lower on the week w/ the July contract closing down $24.50/MT.
-Updated US Crop Progress report will be out later today, last week it showed soybeans were 87% planted (3% ahead of avg), emergence was at 70% (4% ahead of avg) and crop conditions were rated as 72% G/E (vs 59% LY).
-For the week ending June 10, SK crop conditions rated canola at 78% good/excellent. Though AB did not provide crop condition ratings last week, they mentioned “emergence of major crops is reported at 86%,” in line w/ historical averages.
-Last week’s USDA report raised old crop US soybean ending stocks raised by 10 million bushels (mbu) to 350mbu while 24/25 carryouts were raised by the same amount to 455mbu.
-They left Argentina unchanged at 50MMT and Brazil was lower to 153MMT. World carryout for old crop was 111.1MMT (down 0.71MMT) and 24/25 was down 0.6 MMT at 127.9MMT.
-24/25 global rapeseed production was cut by just over 1MMT, to 87.1MMT (3rd largest) with the biggest declines in Australia (5.5MMT, similar to ABARES est.) on account of a decline in seeded area.
Barley
-After some steady barley prices over the past couple of months the domestic feed market started to move lower last week, in line with seasonal tendencies for this time of year.
-For the week ending June 10, SK crop conditions rated barley at 87% good/excellent. Though AB did not provide crop condition ratings last week, they mentioned “emergence of major crops is reported at 86%,” in line w/ historical averages.
-Australian barley exports continued at a record pace through April, now totaling 5.9MMT for the marketing year and could reach as high as 7MMT on the year.
-By comparison, Canada had only exported 1.65MMT through the end of April and current exports as of grain week 45 totaled 2MMT.
-Last week’s USDA report pegged Canadian barley production at 9.6MMT for 24/25, up from 8.9MMT LY.
Corn
-Updated US Crop Progress report will be out later today, last week it showed corn at 95% planted (in line with avg), emergence was at 85% (1% ahead of avg) and crop conditions were rated as 74% G/E (vs 61% LY).
-USDA made no changes to its US supply/demand balance sheet and left projected U.S. old crop and new crop ending stocks steady at 2.022 billion bushels and 2.102bbu respectively.
-The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange yesterday reported Argentine corn harvest at 40% complete – The USDA maintained estimates of 53MMT while most others are sub 50MMT.
-Brazilian gov crop agency Conab raised its total corn output up from 111.6 to 114.1 MMT while the USDA maintained its 122mmt estimate of that crop.
Durum
-For the week ending June 10, SK crop conditions rated durum as 93% good/excellent. Though AB did not provide crop condition ratings last week, they mentioned “emergence of major crops is reported at 86%,” in line w/ historical averages.
-US durum conditions in the Northern Plains are looking very good w/ Montana now in line w/ the 10yr avg and North Dakota ratings well above average levels and a record high.
-Harvest of the Turley’s crop is underway and production is expected to come in around 5MMT while exports are expected to surpass last year’s 1.8MMT figure and hit 2MMT for 24/25.
Peas
-Updated Canadian seeded acreage estimates will be out on June 27 and the expectation is that we will see un upwards revision to Canadian pea acres, probably closer to about 3.5mln ac or ~15% increase over last year.
-Average yields would account for a production increase of over 1MMT compared to last year w/ supplies approaching 4MMT or greater for 24/25 marketing year.
-For the week ending June 10, SK crop conditions rated field peas as 91% good/excellent. Though AB did not provide crop condition ratings last week, they mentioned “emergence of major crops is reported at 86%,” in line w/ historical averages.
-ABARES (Aussie version of USDA) production estimates of the pea crop are pretty much in line with last year at 230,000MT.
-Australian chickpea area and production are expected to climb considerably which could have an impact on India’s demand for yellow peas.