P&H Western Weekly Recap: June 24-28, 2024

June 24, 2024 | Eastern Canada, Western Canada

Canola progress on pace with past year and lower US corn sales: read about these market factors and more in this week’s P&H Western Weekly Recap.

Canola / Soybean

-Canola futures were slightly lower on the week w/ the Sept contract closing down just over $1/MT at $622.50.

-For the week ending June 17, SK crop development for Oilseeds was classified at 4% ahead, 55% normal and 41% behind, crop conditions will be out next week. AB crop report showed canola crop conditions rated as 64.8% G/E. MB’s latest crop report showed that 96% of the crop was seeded and some re-seeding had occurred due to overly wet conditions.

-Canadian Canola is said to be priced very competitively against other origins and other oilseeds with current Canadian canola production forecasts sitting between 19.5 to 20MMT. Demand outlook is better for the 24/25 marketing year which should at least help offset larger production numbers.

-EU and Ukraine harvests of the winter rapeseed crop will soon get started with most analysts peggin the EU crop somewhere around 19MMT (down about 1MMT from LY)and the Ukrainian crop closer to 4MMT (down 9% from 4.4MMT LY)

-Updated US Crop Progress report will be out later today, last week it showed soybeans were 93% planted (2% ahead of avg), emergence was at 82% (3% ahead of avg) and crop conditions were rated as 70% G/E (vs 54% LY).

-US weekly export sales for old crop soybeans were within expectations but the new crop soybean sales book is the worst we’ve seen in 20 years (still nothing sold to China).

-US soy crush was a record for the month of May at 183.6 million bushels crushed, a nice rebound after a poorer crush month back in April

Barley/Corn

-SK’s most recent crop development for Spring Cereals was classified at 5% ahead, 66% normal and 29% behind, crop conditions will be out next week. The AB crop report showed barley crop conditions rated as 76.4% G/E. MB’s latest crop stated that barley and oats were 98% seeded across the province and that spring cereals ranged from the 3-5 leaf stage and tillering to flag leaf.

-Updated US Crop Progress report will be out later today, last week it showed corn emergence at 93% (1% above avg) and crop conditions were rated as 72% G/E (vs 55% LY).

-US weekly export sales were disappointing for corn, coming in at 511,400MT and well below trade expectations of 700k-1.2M.

Durum

-Last week SK crop development for Spring Cereals was classified at 5% ahead, 66% normal and 29% behind. The AB crop report showed durum crop conditions rated as 76.4% G/E (in line w/ barley and Spring wheat).

-Durum crop condition ratings in North Dakota remain historically high at 87% G/E while conditions in Montana were up 9% to 60% Good/Excellent last week. Leftfield has increased its production forecast to 2.2MMT. That would be 38% higher than last year and the largest crop since 2016/17.

-Production in the EU will slightly lower year over year and imports are expected to remain strong.

-Other key growing areas such as Canada, US, Russia, and Turkey will more than offset those losses and durum carryouts are should increase for the 24/25 marketing year.

Peas

-For the week ending June 17, SK crop development for Pulse Crops was classified at 3% ahead, 78% normal and 19% behind. The AB crop report showed dry pea conditions rated as 77% G/E. MB’s latest crop stated field pea planting was complete w/ most fields in the 6-8 node stage.

-Updated Canadian seeded acreage estimates will be out on June 27 and the expectation is that we will see un upwards revision to Canadian pea acres, probably closer to about 3.5mln ac (+15%)